Premier League · Sun, May 24, 16:00 · Final: 1–1
Halftime score 0-0, but Liverpool have dominated the first half. The Reds have 65% possession, 12 total shots (3 on target), and an xG of 0.65, while Brentford have zero shots on goal. The scoreline flatters Brentford, who have been pinned back and unable to create any meaningful attacks. Liverpool's high press and quick passing have stifled Brentford's buildup, forcing them into defensive errors. The visitors have not registered a single shot on target, and their only hope is to hold on for a draw. The second half should see Liverpool continue to press, and with their superior fitness and depth, they are likely to break through. The current odds for a Liverpool win are around 1.36, which offers limited value. However, the Over 2.5 goals market at 1.80 looks appealing given Liverpool's expected dominance and Brentford's likely fatigue. The model gives Over 2.5 a 62% probability, implying fair odds of 1.61, yielding a 10.5% edge.