Premier League · Sun, May 24, 16:00 · Final: 1–0
Tottenham lead 1-0 at the break, but the scoreline flatters them. Despite 68% possession and 12 total shots, they have zero shots on target, with Palhinha's goal coming from a speculative effort that crept in. Everton's defense has been resolute, limiting Spurs to low-quality chances (xG 0.45). The Toffees have offered little in attack, failing to register a single shot on goal. The second half could see Everton push forward, potentially leaving gaps for Tottenham's counter. However, given Spurs' lack of clinical finishing, the market's current odds for Over 2.5 goals (2.10) look generous. Our model projects a 52% probability, giving a 9.2% edge.