Premier League · Sun, May 24, 16:00 · Final: 2–0
Fulham lead Newcastle 1-0 at halftime after I. Diop's 20th-minute goal. The hosts have been the sharper side, creating 7 total shots (3 on target) with an xG of 1.01, while Newcastle managed only 2 shots on goal and an xG of 0.62. The scoreline fairly reflects Fulham's dominance, though Newcastle's two saves from the goalkeeper kept the deficit manageable. Fulham's 51% possession and 84% pass accuracy show controlled buildup, while Newcastle have struggled to create clear chances. In the second half, expect Fulham to continue pressing for a second goal, as their underlying numbers suggest more goals are likely. Newcastle will need to take more risks, which could open up space for Fulham on the counter. The market currently prices Fulham at 2.10 to win, which aligns with our updated probability of 0.50, offering no clear edge. However, the total goals market looks underpriced: Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 with a fair odds estimate of 2.00, giving a 9.1% edge. Fulham's attacking output and Newcastle's need to chase the game should produce at least one more goal.